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Cake day: October 4th, 2023

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  • Most newspapers haven’t been doing very well over the past couple of decades. I mean, most of them aren’t even alive any more.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_newspapers

    The decline of newspapers in the 21st century consists of the closure of many traditional newspapers (whether as printed or online versions), and a decline in the number of professional journalists. Meanwhile, a small number of newspapers with significant brand recognition have seen a significant rise in viewership of their online publications.

    In the U.S. and Europe, newspapers are facing declining advertisement sales, the loss of much classified advertising, and precipitous drops in circulation. The U.S. saw the loss of an average of two newspapers per week between late 2019 and May 2022,[1] leaving an estimated 70 million people in places that are already news deserts and areas that are in high risk of becoming so.

    The newspaper industry has always been cyclical, and the industry has weathered previous troughs. Television’s arrival in the 1950s began the decline of newspapers as most people’s source of daily news. But the explosion of the Internet in the 1990s increased the range of media choices available to the average reader while further cutting into newspapers’ dominance as the source of news. Television and the Internet both bring news to the consumer faster and in a more visual style than newspapers, which are constrained by their physical format and their physical manufacturing and distribution. Competing mediums also offer advertisers moving images and sound. And the Internet search function allows advertisers to tailor their pitch to readers who have revealed what they are seeking—an enormous advantage.

    The Internet has also gone a step further than television in eroding the advertising income of newspapers, as — unlike broadcast media—it proves a convenient vehicle for classified advertising, particularly in categories such as jobs, vehicles, and real estate. Free services like Craigslist have decimated the classified advertising departments of newspapers, some of which depended on classifieds for 70% of their ad revenue.[4] Research has shown that Craigslist cost the newspaper industry $5.4 billion from 2000 to 2007, and that changes on the classified side of newspaper business led to an increase in subscription prices, a decrease in display advertising rates, and impacted the online strategy of some newspapers.[5] At the same time, newspapers have been pinched by consolidation of large department stores, which once accounted for substantial advertising sums.

    From 2005 to 2021, about 2,200 American local print newspapers closed.[14] From 2008 to 2020, the number of American newspaper journalists fell by more than half.[14]

    By March 2018, it was acknowledged that the digital circulation for major newspapers was declining as well, leading to speculation that the entire newspaper industry in the United States was dying off.[31] Circulation for once promising online news sites such as BuzzFeed, Vice, and Vox declined in 2017 and 2018 as well.[31][32][33] In June 2018, a poll conducted by the Pew Research Center revealed a 9% decline in digital circulation of newspapers during the year 2017, suggesting that revenue from newspapers online could not offset the decline in print circulation.[34]




  • In the filing, Reddit calls Anthropic a “late-blooming artificial intelligence (‘AI’) company that bills itself as the white knight of the AI industry,” alleging that “it is anything but.”

    “This case is about the two faces of Anthropic: the public face that attempts to ingratiate itself into the consumer’s consciousness with claims of righteousness and respect for boundaries and the law, and the private face that ignores any rules that interfere with its attempts to further line its pockets.”

    I mean, Reddit’s objection is that they want to sell the same data to Google to do the same training.



  • You’re mostly drinking water that has, at some point, passed through a dinosaur!

    https://what-if.xkcd.com/74/

    Dinosaurs, as a taxonomic group, have been around[10] for 230 million years, but their heyday was the mid-to-late Jurassic period. In this period, there were probably around 5 trillion kilograms of dinosaur alive at any given time.[11] (Today, there are probably only a few hundred billion kilograms of living dinosaur,[12] 50 billion of it chicken).

    If we assume Jurassic dinosaur water requirements were similar to mammal ones,[13] then this suggests dinosaurs drank something like 1022 or 1023 liters of water during the Mesozoic era—more than the total volume of the oceans (1021 liters).

    The average “residence time” of water in the oceans—the amount of time a water molecule spends there before moving into another part of the water cycle—is about 3,000 years,[14] and no part of the water cycle traps water for more than a few hundred thousand years. This means we can assume that, over timescales of millions of years, Earth’s water is thoroughly mixed—and dinosaurs had plenty of time to drink it all many times over.

    This means that while the chances are that most of the water in your soda has never been in another soda, almost all of it has been drunk by at least one dinosaur.



  • China’s decision in April to suspend exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets has upended the supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.

    We were working on this several years ago.

    Extraction:

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/01/02/in-the-mojave-desert-the-rebirth-of-the-only-american-rare-earth-mine_6009991_19.html

    In the Mojave Desert, the rebirth of the only American rare earth mine

    With support from the US government, mine operator MP Materials is reviving the Mountain Pass site. The company is taking advantage of the global appetite for magnets for electric motors and wind turbines.

    Those MP Materials guys also do processing.

    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2643665-western-re-refining-projects-attempt-2025-push

    Attempts to establish commercial-scale rare earth separation and processing outside China are growing in number and progressing gradually with a view to ramping up output over the next two years.

    Mineral resources developers are scrambling to reassess and upgrade their estimates of mineable rare earth element (REE) content as western governments attempt to encourage producers to establish production closer to home. And new efforts to develop high-volume processing capacity outside China — which currently accounts for more than 80pc of global refining — are emerging.

    Western countries are well behind China in advancing technical processes to refine REs from raw materials, as they seek alternatives to the highly polluting solvent extraction process. But with China banning the export of RE extraction and separation technologies in December 2023, as well as exports to the US of key electronic metals in December 2024, the impetus is growing to come up with viable Western production.

    RE oxides are used in the manufacturing of permanent magnets for electric vehicle (EV) motors, wind turbines and electronics, as well as batteries, lasers, metal alloys, medical devices and military equipment.

    Given that latter application, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded more than $439mn in financing since 2020 to support a new domestic supply chain, from the separation and refining of materials mined in the US to downstream production of magnets. In a broader trend towards “friendshoring” of critical material supply, the DoD considers Canada, Australia and the UK as domestic suppliers.

    Like the US, European countries are also targeting domestic production in a bid to secure their supply chains.

    Projects include the expansion of Nd and NdPr processing capacity at UK-based Less Common Metals (LCM), the addition of NdPr production at Belgian chemical group Solvay at its plant in France in 2025 and French consultancy Carestar’s plan to start production in 2026 of RE oxides from mining concentrates and, later, recycled magnets. REEtec in Norway plans to start a commercial NdPr plant in 2025 and Swedish state-owned LKAB plans to start an RE oxide demonstration plant by the end of 2026. These initiatives are in line with plans across Europe to increase EV manufacturing and renewable energy.

    Rare earth mining projects in Africa and Australia are largely targeting supply deals or integrated production in Asia or North America. Miners in Brazil, such as Aclara, are also planning integrated production by developing separation plants close to demand in the US and Europe.














  • Define “know”.

    • An LLM can have text describing how it works and be trained on that text and respond with an answer incorporating that.

    • LLMs have no intrinsic ability to “sense” what’s going on inside them, nor even a sense of time. It’s just not an input to their state. You can build neural-net-based systems that do have such an input, but ChatGPT or whatever isn’t that.

    • LLMs lack a lot of the mechanisms that I would call essential to be able to solve problems in a generalized way. While I think Dijkstra had a valid point:

      The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.

      …and we shouldn’t let our prejudices about how a mind “should” function internally cloud how we treat artificial intelligence…it’s also true that we can look at an LLM and say that it just fundamentally doesn’t have the ability to do a lot of things that a human-like mind can. An LLM is, at best, something like a small part of our mind. While extracting it and playing with it in isolation can produce some interesting results, there’s a lot that it can’t do on its own: it won’t, say, engage in goal-oriented behavior. Asking a chatbot questions that require introspection and insight on its part won’t yield interesting result, because it can’t really engage in introspection or insight to any meaningful degree. It has very little mutable state, unlike your mind.





















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